| And the situation has already changed.... |
[Jan. 3rd, 2009|04:30 pm] |
- The major ground offensive of Israeli troops into Gaza has started. I've been waiting for this. Israel's stated objectives are "to destroy the terrorist infrastructure of Hamas” and “taking control” of Hamas's rocket launching sites. It is estimated that before the assault started, Hamas still had enough rockets to continue launching for another two months at the reduced rate of 80 rockets per day. It sounds like Israel is planning to dig into Gaza, at least for now, as opposed to just some brief in-and-out missions. (They're currently talking about "weeks", but we'll see if this changes.) This likely means guerrilla warfare, with the main mass of Hamas troops safely hidden in the underground bunkers that have been built throughout Gaza City while suicide attackers and gunmen try to whittle down Israeli forces over time. Given the scale of the invasion, Israel is likely trying not only to prevent the rockets (both launch and manufacture), but also trying to take out major Hamas infrastructure, such as the underground bunkers and the tunnels leading from Gaza into the Sinai Peninsual of Egypt. Reports state that Israel is rolling in 45,000 combat troops into Gaza, as opposed to Gaza's estimated 15,000. (![[info]](http://l-stat.livejournal.com/img/userinfo.gif) zunger tells me that a 3:1 ratio of attackers to defenders is the traditional ground war doctrine.)
- Interesting tidbits of how this affects regional and global politics. If Israel is successful in this ground invasion, this also adversely affects Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah, causing them to lose face since they are unable to assist/save Hamas and lowering their status as powers in the region. Hezbollah is riding out their victory in the 2007 Lebanon war against Israel, but if they can't follow that up, they'll lose credibility as "protectors of the Palestinians." Since Iran is the mastermind behind this game, anything that lowers its power status is of great consequence. This is particularly key right now, as it could affect Obama's relationships in the region once he takes office and specifically his negotiations with Iran.
- Turkey and Israel aren't getting along so well right now, because Israel didn't let Turkey in on its Gaza plans, which Turkey interpreted as "disrespect". This is bad from a US standpoint, as these are their two staunchest allies in the region, and many of their operations in the region are run with cooperation between the three nations. For instance, they do regular joint maneuvers, trainings, etc. Apparently when Turkey's prime minister Erdogan visited Cairo on the first of January, Egypt's president Mubarak was furious with him, asking how he could be on the same side as the worst enemies of Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.
-The divide between the Arab world seems to be forming more clearly than usual, zunger informs me. On one side are Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, Kuwait. On the other side, Iran (making its power play for the Middle East), along with Syria, Lebanon (aka Hezbollah), Qatar. Turkey is getting generally stressed about events and making distressed noises. It appears that France might be getting jerked around by Syria, of all places, as a result if it trying to make itself the peace broker of Iran. I asked zunger if it was always this crazy, and he answered, "Yes." Enough said.
- Is following these events going to make me better at writing fictional political intrigue? I certainly hope so.
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